December 9, 2025

Navigating 2025 Global Shipping Trends: Peak Season & Trade Shift

Navigating the High Seas — Global Supply Chain & Logistics Dynamics

USA & Australia Peak Season 2025 Impact

Tariffs

  • Uncertainty in the market
  • US rolling out tariffs globally
  • China was significantly hit with 145% tariffs (which were partially rolled back).
  • Knock-on effect:
    • Order delays/cancellations,
    • Demurrage days at US ports rising to 8.1 days on average
  • Rule of thumb most exports into USA from Australia will be subject to 10% duty.
  • Global trade volumes are being compressed with a 1% contraction in global merchandise trade volumes for 2025.

AU Activity

  • New larger vessels/Hybrid/Environmentally friendly – Australia can’t handle 20k–24k TEU ultra-large green vessels; remains a mid-size ship market.
  • BF data shows +9% YoY growth
  • HPL ordering 16 mid-size ships (4,000–6,000 TEU), ideal for AU market.
  • MSC’s transportation capacity target rising from ~7m TEU to 8m TEU by 2026.
  • COSCO/OOCL: Aiming for 6m TEU annual capacity by 2028

Australian Container Ports

Australia’s Biggest Container Port: Melbourne

In FY25, Port of Melbourne handled approximately $154 billion worth of trade– the highest trade value ever recorded.

Exports from Melbourne

Apart from China, Southeast Asia has emerged as a key trading region in recent years. Most notably, exports to the region have steadily risen from 19% in FY20 to 27% in FY25. In FY25, three of the Port’s top five import sources were Southeast Asian nations – with Indonesia making it into the top ten. These four countries have also consistently been among the Port’s top ten export destinations.

What’s in the Containers?

  • Furniture Surge: 9% of the container shipments into Australia’s biggest port – Melbourne contain furniture
  • Consumer & E-Comm Skew: Peak season high demand driven by retail compared to industry products.
  • China is still the #1 Origin
    • 50% of the containers inbound are China-sourced

Break bulk / Project Cargo:

Asia-Pacific

  • Largest regional market for break-bulk in 2025-2030.
  • Expected to reach US$35.64 billion this year.

Mega project-driven demand

  • US$1 billion manufacturing plant in Indonesia.
  • Underscores the growth of breakbulk shipping in the Asia Pacific.

New services 

  • Swire connects Australia with China, Japan & South Korea
  • MOL is expanding through Asia

BYD

  • US$1 billion manufacturing plant in Indonesia.
  • Underscores the growth of breakbulk shipping in the Asia Pacific

Global Breakbulk Market 2020 vs 2025 (Projected)

Big Picture Issues – Macro Effects in AU

Risk Indicators

Forecast – Next Few Years’ Outlook

  • Major infrastructure development: Port of Bundaberg development to open Pacific trade routes and ease pressure on Brisbane/Gladstone
  • Limited vessel capacity and specialised equipment keep costs per tonne/CBM higher than container freight.
  • Australia’s growing population will lift freight/logistics from US$99bn to US$123bn by 2030.
  • Asia remains the core trading partner with Australia, with a continued focus on China + 1. (India, Vietnam, Indonesia) will dominate inbound flows.

Source: Webinar