February 19, 2026

Early Peak and Pre-CNY Volatility Keep Ocean Rates Low

The last full week of vessel loading before Chinese New Year (CNY) began on Feb 17 2026, saw container spot freight rates continue their recent descent, albeit at a far gentler rate than the past fortnight.

Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) saw low-digit declines on the trades from Asia to North America and Europe coming on the back of much sharper drops in the previous weeks as the pre-CNY peak season petered out.

Source: Drewry

“Container spot rates are falling sharply, which indicates that the market is weak, contrary to the general expectation of rising demand and increasing spot rates before CNY,” Drewry noted.

“This year, rates peaked earlier than usual, and if the normal seasonal pattern continues, they might decrease further,” it added.

The WCI’s Shanghai-Rotterdam leg dropped 2% week on week, to end at $2,127 per 40ft, while the Shanghai-Genoa route lost 3% on the week before, to finish at $2,965 per 40ft.

Meanwhile, Xeneta’s Far East-North Europe short-term XSI rates lost 6% on the week before, to $2,265 per 40ft, and Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand said further declines after CNY concludes were likely.

“Volatility is seen across the main Far East fronthauls to the US and Europe, with widespread falling rates expected.

“Carriers will respond with aggressive capacity management, including blanking sailings, which could cause supply chain disruption and delays for shippers,” he said.

Any shipping that does take place next week out of Asia will likely be booked with further discounts, as today’s Shanghai Containerised Freight Index (SCFI), which often acts as a “forward curve” to the WCI, shows spot rates to North Europe and Mediterranean dropping by 3% and 5% respectively.

It was flatter on the transpacific, with the WCI’s Shanghai-Los Angeles and Shanghai-New York legs both declining 1% week on week, to end at $2,214 and $2,800 per 40ft, respectively.

However, those declines took place while pre-CNY capacity was bumped up, according to Mr Sand, indicating a complex picture.

“Offered capacity on the transpacific trade from Far East to US West Coast increased 6.9% in the last week against a backdrop of subdued demand, yet average spot rates remained almost flat.

“The full story is found by comparing rates being paid by shippers at different levels of the market,” he added.

“Xeneta data shows the mid-low market segment – generally occupied by the larger volume shippers – has fallen 18.3% in the last month, while the market average has fallen a lesser 11.5%.

“With the market mid-low acting as a bellwether, and seemingly impacted more immediately by the increasing capacity on the transpacific, those shippers paying the market average should expect further softening in rates in the coming weeks,” he said.

However, according to US west coast freight forwarder Freight Right, actual rates paid by forwarders remained static compared with the week before, “holding between $1,400 and $1,600 per container” in the west coast, and “maintaining a range of $2,400 to $2,500” to the US east coast.

“The market is entering a period of total dormancy – market participants in China and South-east Asia are shifting focus toward the holiday, with almost no interest in new business or shipping schedules for the upcoming week,” it said.

However, it added that the next pinch point – as happens with every Chinese New Year holiday, as today’s Premium article explains – would be seen in the Chinese trucking sector.

“While ocean rates are flat, there is significant congestion at Chinese origins.

“Trucking rates within China have spiked “super high”, as drivers prepare for the holiday and capacity tightens for the final pre-shutdown moves,” it said.

 

An early peak season combined with pre-Chinese New Year volatility has kept ocean rates unexpectedly low in the sea freight market. While capacity adjustments and shifting demand patterns continue to influence pricing, carriers and shippers alike remain cautious amid ongoing market uncertainty.

 

Source: Article