February 19, 2026

Early Transpac Spot Rate Slump Signals Market Trouble

The flatlining of the pre-Chinese New Year shipping peak was in evidence in the past couple of weeks with falling spot rates, however new analysis from Sea-Intelligence suggests the most recent decline, steeper than ever seen before, points to a market that could be poised for collapse.

Using Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) data covering the 2013-2025 period, every year sees a pre-CNY peak followed by a slump in volumes, accompanied by declining spot rates.

However, this year, particularly on the transpacific trades, the slump has been seen earlier – some three weeks before we would normally expect it – and it has been far steeper than in previous years.

Source: Sea-Intelligence Consulting

“Not only did the spot rates peak much earlier than usual on the transpacific, they have already declined much more than would be normally expected,” said Sea-Intelligence CEO Alan Murphy said.

“Under usual seasonal development, the spot rates on the transpacific would take 12 weeks from the pre-CNY peak until the seasonal bottom is reached. Spot rate data right now show the decline from the CNY peak already significantly exceeds the expected full decline.

“And if usual seasonality is anything to go by, rates should continue downwards for the next nine weeks,” he added.

And it would appear that the situation has become even more serious on the Asia-North America east coast trade, “indicating a very weak market”.

Source: Sea-Intelligence Consulting

Last week, reporters wrote that US west coast freight forwarders had reported actual Far East-US west coast rates paid were in the $1,450–$1,500 range, “which is considered the breakeven point for many carriers; any further drops would result in carriers operating at a loss”.

On the Asia-Europe trades, a similar pattern was detected by Sea-Intelligence, only it has been much less severe.

Source: Sea-Intelligence Consulting

Instead of beginning three weeks before a slump might have been expected, spot rates on Asia-Europe began their decline two weeks earlier, and while prices are falling faster than usual, there is “still with room to drop within developments”.

“The same is not quite the case for Asia-Europe: the earlier onset of the seasonal decline is an indication of weakness, but the decline is thus far within the normal range, and the pre-CNY peak was also normal,” Mr Murphy said.

“All in all, this points to a transpacific trade which is substantially worse off than the Asia-Europe trade – the developments in the transpacific have been extreme, seen from a seasonality perspective.

“In essence, the very early onset, combined with deep troughs both before and after CNY peak, indicate a supply/demand situation,” he concluded.

 

An early slump in transpacific spot rates is raising concerns about weakening demand in the sea freight market. This downward pressure may signal broader challenges ahead, with carriers and shippers closely monitoring capacity adjustments and trade flow shifts across key routes.

Source: Article